CONTACT: GEORGE MCCRORY
300 Plaza Centre One
Iowa City IA 52242
(319) 384-0012; fax (319) 384-0024
Release: Sept. 20, 2002
Iowa Economic Forecast projects 1.4 percent state income growth in 2002
In its latest Iowa Economic Forecast, the University of Iowa Institute for
Economic Research expects real income growth of 1.4 percent in 2002, down
slightly from a forecast of 1.6 percent in February.
Beth Ingram, Institute director and UI professor of economics, said the
forecast is based on state income data through the first quarter of 2002.
Real income growth for 2003 is expected to be 2.9 percent in 2003, up from
2.7 percent forecasted in July.
Robust revenue growth in July has lead to an upward revision in the Institute's
forecast for revenue growth for the current fiscal year, FY03. The Institute
is forecasting a growth rate of 3.5 percent for state tax revenue in the current
year, followed by zero revenue growth in fiscal years 2004 and 2005.
The Institute's forecast also anticipates flat employment growth in Iowa
in 2002. Following on the heels of an employment decline of 0.8 percent in
2001, the Institute expects employment to decline by 0.2 percent in 2002 before
rising by 1.7 percent in 2003. The July forecast predicted employment to decline
by 0.5 percent in 2002 before rising by 1.4 percent in 2003.
The Institute released its report today (Friday, Sept. 20) at the Iowa Economic
Forecasting Council meeting in Des Moines. For complete forecast data, see
the Institute's website at http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/econ/econinst/.
Ingram can be reached at (319) 335-0897, 330-5170 (cell) or firstname.lastname@example.org.